The market for personal genetic testing

Helix Health's Steve Murphy argues, on the basis of a recent poll of 550 "upscale business professionals":

Only [those who respond that they are "very likely"to get a genetic test for disease risk "in the next few years"] will get the test [...] So, I remain certain, the market for these tests is 5%

Right now, public awareness of direct-to-consumer genetic testing is pretty minimal. That's changing fast, though: anyone tracking Google news alerts will have seen the recent spikes in mainstream media coverage of the genetic testing industry, particularly 23andMe. As people hear more and more about genetic testing it will cease being scary and new, and (like IVF or screening for Down syndrome) become familiar and legitimised.

Meanwhile, over the next five years two things will happen: (1) the massive decrease in the cost of sequencing will bring large-scale genetic analysis within the grasp of the average upper middle-class consumer; and (2) our understanding of the genetics of common disease will increase exponentially, rapidly increasing the clinical (and recreational) value of genome sequence data. Thus the cost-to-benefit ratio of personal genomics will shrink incredibly quickly,even as frequent media coverage creates wider familiarity with the concepts and jargon of genetic testing, and simultaneously a host of influential early adopters publicly discusses their genetic testing experiences.

Basically, the medical and social benefits of having your genome sequenced will make this option steadily more attractive while declining costs will make it steadily more affordable. That's a recipe for a market explosion.

So, let's grant Steve's argument that the true size of the market right now is 5% of "upscale business professionals". That's going to be a pretty damn healthy market once Oprah starts talking about how 23andMe changed her life and the guy two cubicles down from you is bragging about his new genome sequence.

Steve isn't getting this, though, I suspect because he keeps seeing it through his clinician prism. For instance, he claims:

It is just like a referral to see another doctor.....if you aren't feeling ill, only the very likely will ever go see that specialist.....It is called the attrition rate and is commonly understood in medical care......only 20% of your "presymptomatic ill" ever go see the referral.

That's because standard medical testing is so incredibly boring. Genome scans and sequences, on the other hand, are cool. They're based on fancy new technology; you've read about them in Wired; and they tell you interesting things about yourself. People will want to take these tests.

And, if the medical establishment gets its act together and starts proving that clinicians can actually value-add to genetic health data (rather than pissing potential clients off with regressive regulations), people will want to take their test results to their doctor to put them in a broader health context. That's win-win - but only if doctors do things the right way.


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